Rigetti Computing’s Quantum Ambitions Clash With Financial Reality
Rigetti Computing's Q4 2025 results reveal a company at crossroads. While revenue fell 17.6% year-over-year to $1.87 million—missing Wall Street's $2.33 million target—the quantum computing pioneer demonstrated technical breakthroughs that could redefine the sector. Gross margins contracted to 35%, attributed to contract mix rather than structural issues.
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh maintains a Buy rating despite cutting his price target from $50 to $43, implying 142% upside potential. The bullish case rests on Rigetti's quantum achievements: 99.9% two-qubit gate fidelity at 28 nanoseconds (3-5x faster than competitors) and a roadmap targeting 150+ physical qubits by 2026.
The $590 million war chest and $8.4 million Indian government contract suggest staying power, but with $22.6 million operating losses, commercialization timelines remain the critical unknown.
